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Thursday, April 16, 2020

The Last Man Standing - 5/17/2020 update


Please check in from time to time for future graphical updates for the US, Canada, China,  Turkey and Russia, a good representative sample, providing insight into the COVID-19 activity.  The Histogram, shown below, gives an overview for 10 countries, including the foregoing mentioned.

February 4th, I wrote in my blog post, " If one has the cure for it, it can determine the last man standing, so to speak."  China's infection rate of only 3 deaths per million is more than unusually low.

The Daily Infection rate is the best indicator when considering lifting restrictions in place, in my opinion.

Click the charts to enlarge them


China's Daily Infections - As of 4-22-2020
The rate of change for China is so low that updates are more or less of not much use.  China's paradox is simply this, on the one hand they have a low infection rate, while on the other hand their death rate appears to be high.  One could be very skeptical about their reporting.

The recent closure of 21 million cell phone accounts, in China, may indicate a much higher death rate than reported.
https://www.ntd.com/the-closing-of-21-million-cell-phone-accounts-in-china-may-suggest-a-high-ccp-virus-death-toll_447579.html

Status as of 5/17/2020
This Histogram shows data of ten selected countries, including nations with a wide variety of infection severity.  Added is now the percentage of people dying once infected.  The data table, part of the above chart shows the effectiveness in saving lives of the individual countries' medical systems.  This chart is self-explanatory, and you can draw your own conclusions.

 US-As of 5-17-2020
The US Daily Infections curve is finally showing a downward trend, although the forecast line does not agree with that.

As of 5/17/2020
 US Cum. Ratio Deaths to Infections
The Cum. p-Ratio currently indicates that about 6% of the infected lost their battle.  Overall there is no clear trend in either direction; the health care system outcomes have not improved over time.  Looking back, it was far more successful a while back; was it just luck back then?  Something changed dramatically for the worse.

Canada-As of 5-17-2020
Canada's daily infections are starting to show a clear downward trend, as indicated by the forecast line, they must be doing something right.  The people's compliance will do that.


Turkey's-Daily Infections as of 5/17/2020
Turkey, by far, has the clearest downward trend, it is on the right track.  Turkey did just about everything right in a timely manner, the free issue of face masks to all plus restrictions of the very old and young, surely helped them in achieving their goal so far.
 
As of 5/17/2020
Russia has turned the corner for daily infections, however, the forecast line, for some reason, is still pointing up. The near future should give us the answer.


As of 5/17/2020
Russia's death rate of only 0.9% is very low by comparison; it appears, their health care system is in a class of its own, thus far, or are they more imaginative in their reporting, not unlike China?


Note: Raw data taken from:  https://www.worldometers.info 

Note: The above charts and their underlying analyses were aided by the use of Statgraphics' Centurion 18 Statistical analysis software.



15 comments:

  1. Turkey does not claim to be the best country in the world but they act like they possible are, as far as this pandemic is concerned.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/izmirs-maskamatic-machines-to-distribute-free-masks-to-metro-riders/news

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thank you Dr. John D. for the link below.

    Dr Luc Montagnier the man who discovered the HIV virus back in 1983 disagrees and is saying that the virus was man made.
    https://www.zerohedge.com/health/covid-19-man-made-virus-hiv-discoverer-says-could-only-have-been-created-lab

    ReplyDelete
  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

    ReplyDelete
  4. There was never a doubt in my mind that the Chinese made it and have the remedy for it. A while back I wrote:
    "In my humble opinion, no callous scientist would work on a deadly pathogen without having the cure in his or her lab safe. If this is indeed a developed virus, then logic says somebody has a cure/vaccine for it, which will be very expensive, and above all, a fantastic moneymaker for many."

    Either China is not reporting all the deaths, or they have a cure for it.

    ReplyDelete
  5. More needed equipment parts and medical supplies will be purchased from Turkey, through special export permits. All because two leaders are working together.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkey-to-sell-ventilator-parts-and-medical-equipment-to-us/news

    ReplyDelete
  6. Dr. John D. sent me this link about the varied damage COVID-19 is capable to inflict in our bodies.

    https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/04/how-does-coronavirus-kill-clinicians-trace-ferocious-rampage-through-body-brain-toes

    ReplyDelete
  7. Turkey's "Pandemic National Preparation Plan" was published in April 2019. What was expected was an influenza pandemic, not the coronavirus. The measures taken about a year ago, however, have also worked for the COVID-19 epidemic."
    https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/secret-of-turkish-health-care-system

    It is evident that Turkey was prepared, while other countries were not, and the numbers confirm this fact. As of yesterday, Turkey had only 28 deaths per million far better than similar industrialized nations, whose deaths per million ranged from 63 to 464.

    ReplyDelete
  8. This article from a month ago, also titled "The Last MAn Standing" is also about China and COVID, but indicates a serious possibility that US military brought the virus from Ft Detrick to Wuhan, either intentionally, or inadvertently, as infected participants in military games, who had to be hospitalized with something weird, and could not compete in their events. https://www.unz.com/article/last-man-standing/

    ReplyDelete
  9. "Turkey sends medical aid to the US to fight coronavirus pandemic."

    https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/turkey-sends-medical-aid-to-the-us-to-fight-coronavirus-pandemic/news



    ReplyDelete
  10. Something to consider: Author unknown.

    https://medium.com/swlh/we-are-not-all-in-the-same-boat-ebf7d44a8e53

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  11. China apparently, knew and deliberately waited for days before warning the public. If indeed the virus came from outside of China, why try to hide it, instead of yelling loudly in protest?
    https://www.theepochtimes.com/china-knew-of-virus-ability-to-spread-but-kept-silent-for-days-leaked-documents_3333210.html?__sta=vhg.hhksexV0jsbdjhv%7CFQI&__stm_medium=email&__stm_source=smartech

    ReplyDelete
  12. An example to follow: Turkey is helping Somalia!

    https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turkey-sends-medical-aid-ventilators-to-somalia-to-fight-virus/news

    ReplyDelete
  13. For the latest info for all states follow this link.

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/reopenings-and-stay-at-home-extensions-heres-the-situation-with-all-50-states_3331580.html

    ReplyDelete
  14. “China has gone a month without announcing any new deaths from the coronavirus and has fewer than 100 patients in treatment for COVID-19.”

    https://www.dailysabah.com/world/asia-pacific/china-marks-1-month-with-no-confirmed-covid-19-deaths

    How is this possible? Are the Chinese walking on water now? Has their Lab released their antidote for general use? Is the rest of the world totally incompetent, or non-compliant with safety precautions?

    ReplyDelete
  15. "California biopharmaceutical company claims coronavirus antibody breakthrough" Perhaps a cure?

    https://www.foxnews.com/science/covid-cure-california-biopharmaceutical-coronavirus-antibody-breakthrough

    ReplyDelete