COVID-19 STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

Unlike most contracted and paid for statistical analyses, I did not torture the data until it confessed  to what I wanted to see as the outcome.

From March 6th through April 1st, 25 US samples were included in the analysis of the daily additions of infected individuals.  The data was then subjected to a Normal Probability Plot to see whether or not it follows a Normal or Gaussian Distribution (my guess), and as the figure below demonstrates, the fit was reasonably good.  The data plotted reasonably close to the straight line, within the 95 percent confidence limits.  This thus demonstrates that the COVID-19 infection acquisition is pretty much a random process; to state the obvious, anybody not isolated can be at risk.

Note: Click on images to enlarge them, or use the ctrl key and the plus key as often as needed.

 This plot was generated  using Statgraphics' 18, statistical analysis software.

The following figure, a Histogram from the same data set, as was used above, and while not a perfect classical symmetric looking Histogram, this analysis did not rule out that it is representative of data with a Normal distribution.  'Skewness' and 'Kurtosis' are well within -2 to +2, see note at bottom left.

This plot was also generated  using Statgraphics' 18, statistical analysis software. 

The next figure is a Time Sequence Plot, which looks, at the moment, anything but exponential, which is at present a  comforting thought.  One can only hope that the virus will not accelerate but will stabilize, and reduce in number of infections quickly.

This plot was also generated  using Statgraphics' 18, statistical analysis software.

At present, I am very hopeful of the eventual outcome, as long as everyone treats all others, not in their household, as an infected individual; yes, at present it pays to be a little paranoid.

I thank the people at Statgraphics for providing me the opportunity to use their latest extremely powerful statistical analysis software, version 18.

I own and have used their DOS version 5.0 for many years, and so have people I made aware of its power, when I was working in the Aircraft and Aerospace industries.  These included figures, shown above, demonstrate only very elementary applications; this software is like statistics on steroids.