Updated Statistical Analysis Of The COVID-19 Virus Affecting The US

After discovering earlier raw data, about the US, published by 'Worldometer' going back to January 22nd, it prompted a rerun of earlier tests performed to see whether or not COVID-19 stayed on track, as far as a normal distribution is concerned.  These early tests were in essence run with censured data, having had data only as far back as March 6th.

Note:
The following statistical analyses were carried out using the powerful 'Statgraphics 18', statistical analysis software.

To refresh our memory, next are shown the plots from my April 3rd posting.  We saw that the data points tracked the straight line of the normal distribution test.

To make double sure this test was run again, this time with the 95% confidence limits, and it validated the earlier plot, shown above.  Therefore, it was concluded that the data is represented by the Normal Distribution.

Now let us look at the normal probability plot, representing the new data set going back to January 22nd, and we can see that the data no longer tracks the test line of a normal probability plot.  Something has changed.  In my April 3rd post, it said: "One can only hope that the virus will not accelerate but will stabilize, and reduce in number of infections quickly."

The next guess was to test the data set with the exponential distribution in mind, and here is the result, shown below.  It is now evident that on or about March 22nd, the virus infection numbers accelerated significantly, to the point that the data set is now better represented by the exponential function, that is the COVID-19 infections grow now at an exponential rate.  This is not the kind of news one wants to write about.

Based on current data, the prediction limits at the 95% confidence interval now forecast that by April 22nd the true number of infections can be anywhere between 1.84 million and 8.95 million; the prediction is 4.1 million infections for the US, by April 22nd.  At the current death rate of 2.8%, this prediction translates to 1,171,115 million people could be death by April 22nd, unless we drastically change our behavior, and urgent needed medical supplies are provided wherever needed, in a timely manner.

Let us all do our part to make sure this prediction number will be wrong, and the true total of infections by April 22nd will be closer to the low end of the range shown above, i.e. it is within our power to change this current catastrophic trend.

Much of what is shown above equally applies to other countries around the world to a lesser or greater degree, and this warning is indeed valid on global basis.  Therefore, please forward this post to all your families and friends, no matter where they are located because forewarned is forearmed.

My Blog feedback data will show me how serious my readers take this pandemic.  I am confident all of you take this pandemic as serious as I do.  The life we save could our own.