Relatve Vaccine Efficacy vs. Absolute Vaccine Efficacy ... Which One Matters In The Real World?

According to Dr. Ron Brown, with the University of Waterloo, Ont. Canada, despite the fact that the FDA says that the Absolute Vaccine Efficacy should also be reported to the public, Big Pharma ignores this suggestion by only publishing the Relative Efficacy of their Vaccines.  After following the simple mathematics below you will understand why Big Pharma prefers not to mention the Absolute Efficacy of their Vaccines.

Dr. Ron Brown explains in a video by 'TrialSite News Podcast' the difference between the Absolute and Relative Efficacy of Vaccines.  Unfortunately, he makes reference to some figures, which are not shown in the video.  While Dr. Brown takes great pain to be clear, a view of the figures he refers to would have been very helpful.

Not to worry, I have taken the time to interpret this portion of his talk, to make it clearer, since many of us are visual creatures.

Definitions:

An infection is an 'Event'

EER = Experimental Event Rate (the group receiving the vaccine).

CER = Control Event Rate (the group receiving the Placebo).

ARR = Absolute Risk Reduction (a real world number)

RRR = Relative Risk Reduction (a number to compare one study to another, or others)

To compare ARR to RRR, shown under definitions above, let us calculate the theoretical example from Dr. Brown's talk.

Here 200 volunteers got split into 2 groups of 100 each; group EER got the vaccine, while group CER got the placebo.

At the end of the trial, the Vaccine Group experienced one Event (1 infection in 100, or 1%), while the Placebo Group experienced two Events (2 infections in 100, or 2%).

First let us calculate the ARR, the Absolute Risk Reduction, as follows.

ARR = CER - EER

   = 2% - 1%

  = 1%        

Therefore, the Absolute Risk Reduction is 1% 

This result is the real world 'Efficacy' of this vaccine; this is the number Doctors, Patients and Government Agencies should work with.

Next we will calculate the RRR, Relative Risk Reduction, as follows.

RRR = EER/CER

  =1%/2%

          =  0.5, or 50%

 Therefore, the Relative Risk Reduction is 50%

By reporting the Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) result, without showing also the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) result, they turned a 1% risk reduction into a perceived 50 % reduction, by failing to explain their spin.

As hinted at before above, the Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) number is a tool that researchers use to compare studies, and has little meaning in the real world of medicine, where the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) is the number of interest.  While a 1% Absolute Risk Reduction is not a sexy as a 50% Relative Risk Reduction, the 1% represents reality, while the 50% does not.

Conclusion: We, the public, Doctors, and many Officials have no idea what the Absolute Risk Reductions are for these current vaccines, however, we know now for sure, they are not Efficacious in the range of 94% or 95%, whatever it is claimed, far from it.  Our example showed an exaggeration by a factor of 50 times more or less is possible.

The video also shows that according to Dr. Brown, Dr. Fauci exaggerated the danger of Covid-19 by a factor of 10, based not on facts but on a desire to panic the people.  It is not a far reach to think that panic among the population is good for the vaccine business.

Please read the comments to learn about the real Absolute Risk Reduction of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines which ranges between 0.7% and 1.1%, depending on which vaccine you received.

 

 

 

The Evidence Ignored

 Reference:

https://covid19criticalcare.com/about/

https://covid19criticalcare.com/videos-and-press/official-testimony/

"The FLCCC Alliance – On a Mission to Save Thousands & Slow the Pandemic (A brief self-introduction; Jan 19, 2021)

The FLCCC Alliance was organized in March, 2020 by a group of highly published, world renowned Critical Care physician/scholars – with the academic support of allied physicians from around the world – to research and develop lifesaving protocols for the prevention and treatment of COVID-19 in all stages of illness. Their MATH+ Hospital Treatment Protocol – introduced in March, 2020, has saved tens of thousands of patients who were critically ill with COVID-19. Now, the FLCCC’s new I-Mask+ Prophylaxis and Early At-Home Outpatient Treatment Protocol with ivermectin has been released – and is a potential solution to the global pandemic."

"We are dedicated to

• Reviewing all emerging published medical literature on COVID-19 from in-vitro, animal, clinical, and epidemiologic studies.
• Developing effective treatment protocols for COVID-19 that evolve by incorporating newly identified, applicable therapeutic and pathophysiologic insights.
• Educating physicians on safe and effective treatment approaches to all phases of COVID-19, from disease prevention strategies to the use of our combination-based therapy protocols in both early-stage (I-MASK+) and hospitalized patients (MATH+).
• Improving outcomes for people impacted by COVID-19 disorders through preventive and treatment strate­gies designed to optimize health.
• Teaching the public ways to prevent transmission of the virus and to advocate for the best possible care.
• Coordinating and accelerating the formation of research studies that will support effective prevention and therapeutic treatments for all impacted by COVID-19.

We accomplish these goals by sponsoring high quality medical education for both the public and health care providers, via the publication of scientific manuscripts, media interviews, and medical lectures for medical providers and the public."

 

 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=19DPijOoVKE

Now let us look at the body of evidence ignored by Health Organizations, including the WHO, NIH, FDA, and others.  I tried to keep the following as large as possible, due to the small font size.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 
 

 

Ivermectin 1 : Politics/Big Pharma 0 ?

I can't believe that to this day dark forces have been able to sentence people, all over the world, to death for the sake of safeguarding insane profits from Vaccines, and drugs in the making, with no guaranty or proof of effectiveness, in the future.  Ivermectin is routinely refused, by Hospitals and Doctors, to treat cases of COVID-19.  In New York, in several cases, Courts had to intervene and order the use of Ivermectin, for patients who were at death's door; each of the patients involved recovered rather quickly thereafter, once this drug was administered, as ordered by a Judge.

Thank God for Doctors and Nurses who are not afraid to save the lives of their patients.  What is still amazing that Nurses and Doctors are also at the mercy of these Villains.  I still recall, where a female doctor was begging for her life, and yet they let her die by using ineffective methods for her treatment.

We are talking here of willful crimes against humanity, and yet nothing has changed, it is business as usual.  Everybody is now afraid to speak out, for fear of losing their positions, their livelihoods.  I have seen this general fear, to speak out, in Nazi Germany, it did not end well in the end, as history has shown.  Despite the medical success of this drug, Politics/Big Pharma are still winning the war by censorship, and fear mongering.

 

Reference: US Constitution

First Amendment

"Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances."

Ninth Amendment

"The enumeration in the Constitution, of certain rights, shall not be construed to deny or disparage others retained by the people."

Despite the people's rights enshrined in the Constitution, the people are now afraid for fear of retribution by those in power, whoever they might be.  Don't we also have the right to determine what is done to our bodies, along with the right to receive life-saving drugs when available, and we request their use, without the interference of bureaucrats who are bought and paid for by Big Pharma?  The same goes for our right to reject vaccines if we are not comfortable with the idea and thus avoid possible self-harm.  No Government nor any other entity shall have the right to inject us with drugs against our will.

With all these guaranteed rights, why are so many of us so afraid to utter the truth?  What kind of distorted Democracy are we willing to live under?

Sadly, some other major countries with quasi-democracies are not any better.

About real people saved by Ivermectin.

 

 

A British Doctor speaks a universal truth hiding behind a mask.

This Doctor speaks for many healthcare workers around the world, who dare not speak out for fear of retaliation by people in charge, including paid for politicians, who, as she says, have blood on their hands.

 

 

Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Alert!

 The FDA announced that six (6) cases of blood clotting have been reported thus far, and out of a sense of caution they recommended a pause in its use.  Apparently, these stroke like reactions appeared days and weeks after injection.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j_cmQeEyTMQ&t=74s

"In a statement provided to Fox News, Johnson & Johnson said the "safety and well-being of people who use our products" remains the company's number one priority, and that it was aware of an "extremely rare disorder involving people with blood clots in combination with low platelets in a small number of individuals who have received our COVID-19 vaccine."

The company said that it has been "reviewing these cases with European health authorities," and that it had "made the decision to proactively delay the rollout of our vaccine in Europe." Additionally, the company said it has been working closely with medical experts and health authorities "and we strongly support the open communication of this information to healthcare professionals and the public." "

"The Food and Drug Administration (FDA) together with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is recommending a pause in the rollout of the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine after several instances of severe blood clots in recipients.

According to the FDA, there have been six reported cases of the rare and severe type of blood clot in over 6.8 million Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine recipients."

"In a statement posted to the agency's website, the FDA said the type of blood clot is called cerebral venous sinus thrombosis, and that it was seen in combination with low levels of blood platelets. All six cases involved women between the ages of 18 and 48, and symptoms occurred between six and 13 days post-vaccination. "

"The FDA said the pause in rollout would also "ensure that the health care provider community is aware of the potential for these adverse events and can plan due to the unique treatment required with this type of blood clot.""

https://www.foxnews.com/health/fda-recommends-pause-johnson-johnson-covid-19-vaccine-blood-clot-cases

"J&J's has administered more than 6.8M COVID-19 vaccine doses"

The risk for these blood clotting cases is extremely low.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/fda-halts-jj-covid-19-vaccine-what-we-know

If you or someone you know has been vaccinated with the J & J vaccine recently, please do not ignore the early warning signs of becoming ill, and consult with your doctor, or visit your local health clinic without delay.

COVID-19 HYSTERIA?

Let us look at the excess death rate of Sweden, where no lock-downs  and business closures were in effect, moreover, masks and social distancing were all voluntary, and compare it to the U.S. excess death rate.

You  might ask, what is the excess death rate?  The simple method for calculating is the average death rate (from all causes for all ages) for the last five years prior to COVID-19.  Once we have this average, we can then take the current death rate (from all causes for all ages) during the Covid-19 period and subtract the prior established five-year average, which gives us the Excess Death Rate, due to the Covid-19 infections.

Click on Graph to enlarge

  https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

For February 2021, the graph shows that Mexico was 95% over the average (the baseline), the US was 20% over, whereas Sweden was actually 2% under the average, i.e. the COVID-19 period was no worse than the usual death rate, prior to Covid-19.  This clearly shows that all the hysteric actions imposed by local and central Governments, with the help of so-called experts, had little effect on the excess US death rate experienced, for example.

Now let us compare the US excess deaths with that of Sweden, more in detail, to show that despite the US's Draconian restrictions, they did not do as well as the country that did not try to destroy itself.  As stated above, their businesses stayed, apparently, open, and so were their schools; no demands were made regarding the circulation of people, everything regarding prevention, was voluntary.

Interactive Graph on website only

Click to enlarge

https://ourworldindata.org/excess-mortality-covid

How can one argue with the overall success of Sweden?

"Earlier in the pandemic, Sweden did not go through a strict lockdown like many other countries. Younger children continued to go to school, and businesses and restaurants stayed open at limited capacities. There was a spike in coronavirus cases and deaths, adding up to nearly 82,000 confirmed cases and more than 5,700 deaths. This death rate is among the highest in Europe for its population of about 10 million. Recently, daily deaths in Sweden have dropped down close to zero."

https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/510922-the-problem-with-holding-up-sweden-as-an-example

In my opinion, Sweden let the self-limiting forces of nature play out, just like we used to do for all the previous dangerous viruses; it seems to work every-time.  Let us face it, many major countries, the US included, still don't allow drugs like Ivermectin be used to prevent hospitalizations.  Patients receive standard care, whatever this means, however, this care did not save lives that drugs like Ivermectin could have saved.

So far, in the US (and some other countries), when testing positive a person is sent home, with the usual suggested actions for Flu-like symptoms, and told, 'when you really get very sick go to a hospital'.  The correct action should be, the start of treatment with Ivermectin, or a similar effective drug, to prevent the need to visit a hospital, and likely die in the process.  The latter is the protocol in humane countries, where lives matter.  Some countries provide Ivermectin free of charge as a prophylactic, thus preventing infections in the first place.  How smart is that!

Note: The excess death rate method eliminates any bias by the medical system that may in some cases miss-classify the cause of death as COVID-19.

Finally, let me refer you back to one of my earlier posts, in which the numbers showed that in reality Covid-19 is not much worse than some of the other viruses of the past.  Hysteria did not go into overdrive, in these instances.

https://frankjm-socialconcerns.blogspot.com/2020/09/why-would-anyone-analyse-questionable.html

 

Added April 10, 2021

"Dr. Ron Brown of Waterloo University talks about his Cambridge and Medicina Paper. We discuss relative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data."

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jkwn5I8tLmE 

The point Doctor Brown is making is that authorities, including Dr. Fauci, published both inflated and understated numbers, to suit their objectives, to ensure that the public will reach the panic level quickly, and thus become obedient subjects.

I strongly suggest watching this video, as Dr. Brown's presentation validates what others and I have been writing about, for some time now.