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Sunday, September 6, 2020

Why Would Anyone Analyse Questionable Numbers?

Many of the U.S. Death Certificates may be based on opinions, such as likely, probable or presumed causes of death.  Apparently, verification by a test is not mandatory.  This fact makes much of the data reported suspect.  The quotes, shown below, were taken from the CDC Technical Notes.

https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/tech_notes.htm

"Cause-of-death classification and definition of deaths"

 “Coronavirus disease deaths are identified using the ICD–10 code U07.1. Deaths are coded to U07.1 when coronavirus disease 2019 or COVID-19 are reported as a cause that contributed to death on the death certificate. These can include laboratory confirmed cases, as well as cases without laboratory confirmation. If the certifier suspects COVID-19 or determines it was likely (e.g., the circumstances were compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), they can report COVID-19 as “probable” or “presumed” on the death certificate (5, 6). COVID-19 is listed as the underlying cause on the death certificate in 94% of deaths (see Table 1).”  Emphasis added.

“Pneumonia deaths are identified using multiple cause-of-death codes from the 10th Revision of ICD (ICD–10): J12–J18, excluding deaths that involve influenza (J09–J11). Influenza deaths are identified from the ICD–10 codes J09–J11, and include deaths with pneumonia or COVID-19 listed as a contributing cause of death.”

"Why are pneumonia and influenza deaths included in this report?"

Pneumonia and influenza deaths are included to provide context for understanding the completeness of COVID-19 mortality data and related trends. Deaths due to COVID-19 may be misclassified as pneumonia or influenza deaths in the absence of positive test results, and pneumonia or influenza may appear on death certificates as a comorbid condition. Additionally, COVID-19 symptoms can be similar to influenza-like illness, thus deaths may be misclassified as influenza. Thus, increases in pneumonia and influenza deaths may be an indicator of excess COVID-19-related mortality. Additionally, estimates of completeness for pneumonia and influenza deaths may provide context for understanding the lag in reporting for COVID-19 deaths, as it is anticipated that these causes would have similar delays in reporting, processing, and coding.”  Emphasis added.

By the way, my spell checker was not very happy when spell-checking the quoted texts published by the CDC.

Conclusion:
From the foregoing, it is now clear that the reported number of U.S. COVID-19 deaths is likely inflated, by definition.   Many of these deaths could very well be attributed to pneumonia and/or influenza; only mandatory 100% testing would add credibility to these cause of death reports.  Why this reluctance regarding the verification, by simply testing all these deceased before stating the cause of death?  There should be no guessing.

The CDC is concerned about COVID-19 cases being classified as pneumonia or influenza, what about the other way around, where pneumonia, or influenza cases are classified as COVID-19?  If the number of COVID-19 deaths is in question, what about the COVID-19 infection number?

Lately, I also noticed that the number of deaths of another major country, without explanation, was reduced by several thousands.  We all know about China's questionable statistics, reflecting their death toll has not changed for months.  It appears, some if not all countries torture their COVID-19 numbers until they confess to a certain desired result.

In any event, there is nothing worse than getting questionable data for statistical analysis, and since this data can no longer be trusted, in my opinion, I decided to stop analyzing it because only a fool would keep on analyzing numbers that he now knows are suspect, at best.

Accordingly, my sample analysis of 10 counties affected, early on, ended with my last analysis, issued last Sunday.  Regardless of the validity of the numbers published, COVID-19 will be with us for some time to come, it appears.

Other major infection events are reported by the CDC, as shown by following the link below, when many more millions were infected than are so far, infected by COVID-19.  No businesses were shut down, schools were mostly operating normal, no social distance requirements were enacted, and very, very few were wearing a face mask, life was pretty normal.  Helpful medications were not maligned for the benefit of, probably, Big Pharma.  This callous action alone is, very likely, responsible for a great number of excessive deaths.  Doctors, in the main, were allowed to treat their patients, as they saw fit.  As a result, the number of deaths was much lower, by comparison.

From the CDC Flu-data, referenced above, the following was extracted for the 2017 - 2018 Season. According to the CDC report for the 2017 – 2018 Flu-Season Estimate 45,000,000 were infected (95% Conf.-limit range is 39,000,000 – 58,000,000 infected) 21,000,000 medical visits (95% Conf.-limit range is 18,000,000 – 27,000,000 visits) 61,000 deaths (95% Conf.-limit range is 46.000 – 95,000 deaths) Note: The true number lies within the 95% confidence interval, shown for each category. See Table 1 by following this link,  https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

What changed?  What is different this time?  For one, this is an election year, and the strong economics up to 2019, made it very hard to dislodge the current Administration, in the upcoming 2020 election.  Let us put ourselves into the shoes of the Opposition, facing this issue calls for drastic actions, does it not?  If one could destroy the economy, the hurdle would be removed.  Along came COVID-19, convince everybody that to shut down the economy is a must, to defeat the Corona Virus; and, it was done.  The control by fear is an old and tried weapon; it worked every time throughout history, recent and past.  Let us ponder about the following three examples.

First, let me assure all, I am not affiliated with neither party; I usually vote for the lesser of two evils.  In my blog post on Saturday, January 5, 2019, I wrote:
“Egos and turf war are the priorities of these gangs; if it were not so, they would compromise for the good of the people.”  Nothing has changed, if anything, it is getting uglier and uglier by the day.

1) Pearl Harbor convinced a very reluctant population to enter the European war after all.

2) Nonexistent 'Weapons of Mass-Destruction' facilitated to convince the public to support the invasion of Iraq.

3) 911 convinced the public that limiting their civil rights is OK, in order to achieve better national security.

Another opportunity surfaced, Police brutality prompted a major civil unrest across the country; it spread even across the Globe.  Peaceful demonstrations were hijacked by radical agitators; rioting, looting and destroying of private property followed.  Politicians in power, working for a takeover in November, allowed this situation go on for months, in some cities.  Only when the polls showed that the public was getting very upset by it all, came the thought to them that maybe riots are no longer helpful.

Now, what not too long ago was a no-go situation, flourished into a piece of cake circumstance; the Opposition is leading in the polls in a major way.  Mission accomplished!  Was it all engineered?  No, not entirely but opportunities that came along were and are still exploited to the fullest.  All this is known as dirty politics; today there is no other.

Please read the 'Comments Section' for a very important Video presentation, which validates more or less the foregoing points raised above.

 

 



5 comments:

  1. According to the CDC Flu-data, referenced in this post, the following was extracted for the 2017 - 2018 Season.

    According to the CDC report for the 2017 – 2018 Flu-Season Estimate

    45,000,000 were infected
    (95% Conf.-limit range is 39,000,000 – 58,000,000 infected)

    21,000,000 medical visits (95% Conf.-limit range is 18,000,000 – 27,000,000 visits)

    61,000 deaths (95% Conf.-limit range is 46.000 – 95,000 deaths)

    Note:
    The true number lies within the 95% confidence interval, shown for each category.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Roger Seheult MD, a Critical Care Pulmonologist, with the best COVID-19 lecture series, explains why there are usually 3-4 causes and contributing causes to death on every death certificate. I think I never had less than 3, but I did not do a lot of trauma work. Sometimes "Gunshot Wound to Heart" would just be the one. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_TECf3xSFbU

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thank you Dr. John Day for providing this link!
      After watching the presentation, 6% of the 'Death Certificates', examined, had COVID-19 only written on it, and as such these are the results of sloppy reporting, and are, most likely, inconclusive. Who knows what other defects are present in all others?

      Delete
  3. Dr. John Day sent me another very interesting, and crucial link, as shown below.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UvFhIFzaac

    This well researched video presentation shows with Graphs that COVID-19 behaves not too different from any prior seasonal Influenza.

    This conclusion is similar to what I observed, which prompted me to write this Post article, in the first place. Covid-19 became a political weapon, in the U.S., pure and simple.

    ReplyDelete
  4. "People die not just from coronavirus"
    https://www.dailysabah.com/opinion/columns/people-die-not-just-from-coronavirus

    This article puts things into perspective.

    ReplyDelete