According to Dr. Ron Brown, with the University of Waterloo, Ont. Canada, despite the fact that the FDA says that the Absolute Vaccine Efficacy should also be reported to the public, Big Pharma ignores this suggestion by only publishing the Relative Efficacy of their Vaccines. After following the simple mathematics below you will understand why Big Pharma prefers not to mention the Absolute Efficacy of their Vaccines.
Dr. Ron Brown explains in a video by 'TrialSite News Podcast' the difference between the Absolute and Relative Efficacy of Vaccines. Unfortunately, he makes reference to some figures, which are not shown in the video. While Dr. Brown takes great pain to be clear, a view of the figures he refers to would have been very helpful.
Not to worry, I have taken the time to interpret this portion of his talk, to make it clearer, since many of us are visual creatures.
Definitions:
An infection is an 'Event'
EER = Experimental Event Rate (the group receiving the vaccine).
CER = Control Event Rate (the group receiving the Placebo).
ARR = Absolute Risk Reduction (a real world number)
RRR = Relative Risk Reduction (a number to compare one study to another, or others)
To compare ARR to RRR, shown under definitions above, let us calculate the theoretical example from Dr. Brown's talk.
Here 200 volunteers got split into 2 groups of 100 each; group EER got the vaccine, while group CER got the placebo.
At the end of the trial, the Vaccine Group experienced one Event (1 infection in 100, or 1%), while the Placebo Group experienced two Events (2 infections in 100, or 2%).
First let us calculate the ARR, the Absolute Risk Reduction, as follows.
ARR = CER - EER
= 2% - 1%
= 1%
Therefore, the Absolute Risk Reduction is 1%
This result is the real world 'Efficacy' of this vaccine; this is the number Doctors, Patients and Government Agencies should work with.
Next we will calculate the RRR, Relative Risk Reduction, as follows.
RRR = EER/CER
=1%/2%
= 0.5, or 50%
Therefore, the Relative Risk Reduction is 50%
By reporting the Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) result, without showing also the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) result, they turned a 1% risk reduction into a perceived 50 % reduction, by failing to explain their spin.
As hinted at before above, the Relative Risk Reduction (RRR) number is a tool that researchers use to compare studies, and has little meaning in the real world of medicine, where the Absolute Risk Reduction (ARR) is the number of interest. While a 1% Absolute Risk Reduction is not a sexy as a 50% Relative Risk Reduction, the 1% represents reality, while the 50% does not.
Conclusion: We, the public, Doctors, and many Officials have no idea what the Absolute Risk Reductions are for these current vaccines, however, we know now for sure, they are not Efficacious in the range of 94% or 95%, whatever it is claimed, far from it. Our example showed an exaggeration by a factor of 50 times more or less is possible.
The video also shows that according to Dr. Brown, Dr. Fauci exaggerated the danger of Covid-19 by a factor of 10, based not on facts but on a desire to panic the people. It is not a far reach to think that panic among the population is good for the vaccine business.
Please read the comments to learn about the real Absolute Risk Reduction of the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines which ranges between 0.7% and 1.1%, depending on which vaccine you received.
Thanks Frank,
ReplyDeleteThis is a very important point, but what we get these days is advertising/PR/Propaganda, not honest scientific presentation of facts.
"Seychelles brings back curbs despite vaccination success"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.bbc.com/news/world-africa-56992121
The above referenced story underlines the fact that the efficacy of the vaccines is mostly hype that is, the result of withholding facts and misusing math., as it applies to this issue.
Lawyers save lives of COVID-10 victims; yes, this is not a typo but it is for real. Four Courts have ordered the administration of Ivermectin for very ill patients, telling Hospitals to comply with the wish of the family, and in some cases, the doctor involved. Sadly, some doctors sided with the hospital.
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r6um8TZO0rE
"Dr. Pierre Kory Talks About Human Rights and The Big Science Disinformation"
ReplyDeletehttps://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3UTuT9TSRFQ&t=2033s
Dr. Kory, after his opening comments, shows a number of graphs, illustrating how some enlightened countries reduce infections and deaths with the use of Ivermectin. The results are truly dramatic.
"Abstract
ReplyDeleteRelative risk reduction and absolute risk reduction measures in the evaluation of clinical trial data are poorly understood by health professionals and the public. The absence of reported absolute risk reduction in COVID-19 vaccine clinical trials can lead to outcome reporting bias that affects the interpretation of vaccine efficacy. The present article uses clinical epidemiologic tools to critically appraise reports of efficacy in Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna COVID-19 mRNA vaccine clinical trials. Based on data reported by the manufacturer for Pfzier/BioNTech vaccine BNT162b2, this critical appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 95.1%; 95% CI, 90.0% to 97.6%; p = 0.016; absolute risk reduction, 0.7%; 95% CI, 0.59% to 0.83%; p < 0.000. For the Moderna vaccine mRNA-1273, the appraisal shows: relative risk reduction, 94.1%; 95% CI, 89.1% to 96.8%; p = 0.004; absolute risk reduction, 1.1%; 95% CI, 0.97% to 1.32%; p < 0.000. Unreported absolute risk reduction measures of 0.7% and 1.1% for the Pfzier/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, are very much lower than the reported relative risk reduction measures. Reporting absolute risk reduction measures is essential to prevent outcome reporting bias in evaluation of COVID-19 vaccine efficacy."
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33652582/
It is clear, the absolute risk reduction ranges from 0.7% to 1.1%, depending which vaccine you received.
I forgot to mention that the NIH has published this Abstract by Dr. Ronald B, Brown's report/paper entitled,
Delete"Outcome Reporting Bias in COVID-19 mRNA Vaccine Clinical Trials"
Good research results regarding Vaccine damage to humans are hard to come by, because truthful records don't exist, apparently.
ReplyDeleteHere is a link (provided by Dr. John Day) that gives us some idea what is going on.
https://trialsitenews.com/should-you-get-vaccinated/