COVID-19 ACTIVITY - SMALL SAMPLE OBSERVATION - 3/30/2020

My research of current (3/30/2020) data posted on the internet by John Hopkins University & Medicine, plus others, reveals that some major countries, like Italy and Spain, who were really hard hit by the outbreak, are showing favorable trends, whereby the daily increases of cases, are at present on a downward slope.  For example, Spain shows four consecutive decreases in the daily numbers of infections added.  Other counties, like Italy, Germany, France, UK, Turkey, Canada, and India, all showing the early signs of reductions in the daily additions of infections.

Judging from the foregoing, it may be too early to celebrate, however, it does provide a glimmer of hope for all of us.  Due to the fact that most statistics out there is not normalized, the chart and table, shown below will provide better information of some categories.

Also, we must find some comfort that some counties, like the US for example, show data which demonstrate that the exponential growth rate, appears to have changed to an Arithmetic one, which is much slower growth.  For example, the US appears to be adding at present about 18,000 to 20,000 new infections per day for the last four days, while this is still bad, it nevertheless must be seen as an improvement (think Arithmetic Progression and not exponential).

Click on image to enlarge it.

If all present measures are strictly adhered to by the public, and maintained by the Governments, and the conditions of the medical systems are further improved, then by the summer we will be over the pandemic, I would think.

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