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Monday, June 15, 2020

Gazing Into A Statistical Crystal Ball

Let us look at some 30-day forecasts, visible in my Crystal Ball, for some countries, for comparison.

U.S.
Infections:
At the end of the next 30 days the Cumulative Infections are predicted to rise to about 2.64 millions; currently we are at 2.16 millions.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 3.01 million infections, at the end of this period.

Deaths:
At the end of the next 30 days the, Cumulative Deaths are predicted to rise to about 151,000; currently we are at 117,853.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 158,000 deaths, at the end of this period.

Canada
Infections:
At the end of the next 30 days the Cumulative Infections are predicted to rise to about 129,000; currently we are at 98,787.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 133,000 infections, at the end of this period.

Deaths:
At the end of the next 30 days the Cumulative Deaths are predicted to rise to about 9,690; currently we are at 8,146.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 10,200 deaths, at the end of this period.

Turkey
Infections:
At the end of the next 30 days the Cumulative Infections are predicted to rise to about 244,000; currently we are at 178,239.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 253,000 infections, at the end of this period.

Deaths:
At the end of the next 30 days the Cumulative Deaths are predicted to rise to about 6,640; currently we are at 4,807.  Under the 95% Upper Limit, we could see as many as 6,920 deaths, at the end of this period.

Russia
Infections:
My Crystal Ball came up with unreasonable predictions, making the data reported questionable.

Deaths:
My Crystal Ball came up with unreasonable predictions, making the data reported questionable.


Note: The above analyses were aided by the use of Statgraphics' Centurion 18 Statistical analysis software.



8 comments:

  1. "Mutation in coronavirus circulating in US, Europe making it more infectious, study finds"
    https://www.dailysabah.com/life/science/mutation-in-coronavirus-circulating-in-us-europe-making-it-more-infectious-study-finds

    More than ever, the wearing of face masks is paramount in the fight against new COVID-19 infections.

    ReplyDelete
  2. "Coronavirus: Dexamethasone proves first life-saving drug"
    https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53061281

    Will the US FDA give the green light for this drug, for this purpose? Saving lives is not high on their agenda, it appears. Serving big Pharma, apparently, is their number one concern.

    ReplyDelete
  3. The Health Minister of Turkey says in a tweet, "Koca tweeted: “we cannot struggle against the virus without masks.”
    The man is absolutely 100% correct, of all the precautions, the mask is the most effective measure for prevention.

    All world Governments must provide these masks freely to everyone, failing that they not only allow more people to be killed but they will also kill their economies in the end. Many people who struggle to buy their daily food, simply cannot afford these masks. While other Macho individuals should be fined for not wearing them, after appropriate rules of law are established.

    The argument about being a free society does not apply because we are not free to infect others, many of whom will die.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Turkey now fines those not wearing a mask in public places; the fine is about $131, after a first warning was ignored.

    https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turkey-implements-uniform-tl-900-fine-for-not-wearing-mask/news

    ReplyDelete
  5. "Mutation affects sensitivity of COVID-19 tests in Turkey, experts say"

    https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/mutation-affects-sensitivity-of-covid-19-tests-in-turkey-experts-say/news

    ReplyDelete
  6. "WHO calls for rapid production of dexamethasone for worst COVID-19 cases"

    https://www.dailysabah.com/world/who-calls-for-rapid-production-of-dexamethasone-for-worst-covid-19-cases/news

    For some cases a 35% reduction in deaths were reported.

    ReplyDelete
  7. If you are doubtful about the severity of this decease, read the following accounts of recovered people.

    "Turkey’s recovered COVID-19 patients recount their ordeal, warn public "

    https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turkeys-recovered-covid-19-patients-recount-their-ordeal-warn-public/news

    ReplyDelete
  8. It is a well-known fact, the UK is not doing great managing COVID-19, to add insult to injury, a great number of over-grown children celebrated the victory of their football team. Very few, if any, wore facemasks, and social distancing is difficult when hugging a fellow fan. To see the photographic evidence, follow this link

    https://www.dailysabah.com/sports/football/liverpool-condemns-fan-gatherings-in-title-celebrations

    Then the people will complain that their Government is handling the pandemic very badly. Go figure?
    Similar is true also for other countries, only this time beaches are to blame, never the people.

    ReplyDelete