Best COVID-19 Infection Avoidance/Management Ranking - July 5, 2020 Update

About China, the Histogram, shown below, indicates that China's  death-rate stands at 5.5%.  From April 17, 2020 to July 4, 2020, 79 days, China has added 853 new infections, and if we calculate 5.5% of this number we would expect about 47 additional deaths.  For some unexplained reason or reasons, China reported zero deaths during the aforementioned period; nobody, in China, is dying due to COVID-19 of late.  As a minimum, one has to wonder, how come?

In my earlier blog post of March 2, 2020, I wrote,

"This major virus assault on the populations of this planet appears to go the way some control forest fires go, out of control.  In my humble opinion, no callous scientist would work on a deadly pathogen without having the cure in his or her lab safe.  If this is indeed a developed virus, then logic says somebody has a cure/vaccine for it, which will be very expensive, and above all, a fantastic moneymaker for many."

I was wondering then if China is in possession of the antidote (and vaccine) for this COVID-19 virus, I wonder no more.

Updated results for the top three of the previously selected sample of mostly the hardest hit countries, in the order of their present successful infection avoidance.  Each country is strictly judged against its initial daily infection rate.  In other words, the data is not normalized, and therefore should not be used to compare one country against another.  The graphs strictly show how each country manages their COCID-19 problem.  From this point of view we can, to some degree, judge how well each country's Government, Medical System, and Population Compliance are doing.

Note: Increased testing will affect the numbers but then again, most countries suffer from the same effect, which basically removes any grounds for this lamentation.  When testing data is normalized, i.e. per capita, then another picture is visible.  In fact, when normalizing testing data of various countries, including the U.S, we can see that the U.S. is not number one in testing but number 10.  To see the relevant graph, as of June 26, 2020, follow this link.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104645/covid19-testing-rate-select-countries-worldwide/

Listening to some, one would think that testing is a bad thing, it makes one look bad, they say; testing identifies carriers, which leads to early isolation and treatment, both save lives.  In addition, contrary to what our experts had said at the beginning, the wearing of face mask is an absolutely crucial addition to manage and stop this pandemic successfully.  Thankfully, some Governors in the U.S. are now, finally, mandating the wearing of masks in public places; it was late in coming, however.  It needs to be country wide, to be truly effective.  We still have many carriers travel from state to state, unknowingly infecting others, who then will do likewise.  The only problem is, not all adhere to this edict, and some do wear the masks incorrectly, by exposing their nose, were the bugs are most likely hiding, hence the nasal swab test.  Others wear their mask under the chin; this appears to be a worldwide problem; adults acting like three-year-old children.

As before, the opening graph (Histogram), shown below, does reflect normalized data, and thus invites meaningful comparison, among the countries shown. This Histogram shows data of ten selected countries, including nations with a wide variety of infection severity.  Added is now the percentage of people dying once infected.  The data table, part of the above chart shows the effectiveness in saving lives of the individual countries' medical systems.  This chart is self-explanatory, and you can draw your own conclusions.

Click the Charts to enlarge them.

As of 7/5/2020

The Honor Roll

 No. 1: Canada

The best infection management, of our sample, is shown by Canada, which without any doubt manages their COVID-19 issue with great success.  After partial opening of their economy, we saw some hesitation but it appears the infection reduction continues.  The Forecast Line shows a clear downward slope.

As of 7/5/2020

No. 2: Russia

Russia, after an initial strong decline in the number of infections, showed some hesitation for about 3 weeks; however, of late it exhibits another steady reduction in the infection rate.  The Forecast line shows a strong negative slope.  Russia has also one of the lowest death rates recorded.

As of 7/5/2020

No. 3: U.K. 

The U. K. struggled from the outset; however, recent history shows a nice downward trend.  Judging from some reports, a drastic increase in infections was feared possible, given the attitude of its people.  For pictorial evidence follow the link below.  However, such has not materialized as yet.

https://www.dailysabah.com/sports/football/liverpool-condemns-fan-gatherings-in-title-celebrations

As of 7/5/2020

Next are those that need to pull up their socks and get with it, they are not doing so well.

U. S.

The U.S. started out hesitantly but showed, nevertheless, overall a minor downward trend, after a while.  Then came a long period with no clear direction, the slope was more or less stuck at the somewhat over 20,000 new daily infections.  Along came the economic pressure to reopen America, despite that the data clearly showed that this was not warranted.  Nobody should be surprised that the daily infection rate saw a 100% increase in these last few days.  Not only has the U.S. wiped out any progress made but establish new highs for the daily new infections.  It is worth noting that the trend may be soon show a reversal, should further reductions be achieved.

Peoples in free societies often complain when their Governments tell them what to do, now suddenly, during the pandemic, they cry when their Governments does not tell them how to blow their noses.  One can't win, can one?  Until such time when adults stop acting like three-year-old children, and become responsible, COVID-19 will ruin it all for the U.S., and other nations.

As of 7/5/2020

Turkey

Turkey had a great beginning, its infection rate was steadily reduced, they did everything right but then came the gradual lifting of restrictions, and the population went overboard by returning to a near normal lifestyle.  Many stopped wearing face-masks; also a significant number no longer respected social distancing.  Their behavior is reflected in the graph below.

As of 7/5/2020

  Turkey's Forecast Line is showing a horizontal varied line of ups and downs.

 

Photo by Daily Sabah - Turkey

https://www.dailysabah.com/turkey/turkeys-coronavirus-caseload-nears-200000/news

Overall, Turkey is doing much better than most other badly affected countries, and there is a reason, they provide essential PPE for free to all.

Please do read the Comment Section, vital information can be found; remember, this is a dynamic situation, and new knowledge is gained frequently.

Note: The above analyses were aided by the use of Statgraphics' Centurion 18 Statistical analysis software.